2022 economic outlook defined by digital resilience and a return to the “experience economy”



Ahead of the pandemic’s second year milestone, the Mastercard Economics Institute today released Economics 2022, a global outlook for the coming year based on critical trends seen through the lens of the consumer.

The report reveals how five fundamental factors – economies and spending, supply chains, digital acceleration, global travel and a growing list of economic risks – will continue to shape the global economy.

Our main findings include:

  • Savings and expenses: Consumption spending on accumulated savings could contribute an additional three percentage points to global GDP growth in 2022. Household savings rates nearly doubled in 2021. How quickly or slowly consumers spend their savings will have a ripple effect on the global economy.
  • Supply chains: A record 27-year decline in the shift of household spending from goods to services is returning – already six percentage points below the peak. The pandemic caused spending on goods to grow from 39% to around 47% at its peak, disrupting the service economy while straining supply chains. With the closet bursting, we expect the balance to normalize in 2022 as borders open and services become more accessible and desirable again.
  • Digital: 20% of the digital shift in retail remains in place, redefining how and what consumers buy. Ecommerce subscriptions gained ground in 2021, as nearly 88% of countries in 32 markets saw an increase in subscription services compared to the previous year. Notably, automakers, virtual training partners, bike rentals, and pet services are among the many companies benefiting from this model.
  • To travel: The recovery in leisure travel continues with the opening of international travel, with medium and long-haul flights gaining ground in 2022. The return to travel in 2021 was fully visible on our roads and at airports, but continued growth depends on taming the virus variants that lead to travel bans. We have seen a rapid rebound in domestic and international short-haul travel (less than 1,000 km), medium-haul travel (less than 2,900 km) lifted by fewer restrictions and long-haul travel behind.
  • Risks: Risks remain and could disrupt the global economy. New COVID variants like Omicron pose the greatest immediate risk, but we’re keeping an eye out for nearly a dozen additional risks that could derail the recovery, including a brutal recalibration of house prices which have appreciated by 66%. over the past two years, soaring oil prices, fiscal cliffs in advanced economies and international tariff wars.

“The past year has not been the return to normal that many longed for, but collectively we have made tremendous progress,” he added. said Bricklin Dwyer, chief economist at Mastercard and director of the Mastercard Economics Institute. “Globally, economic growth, advances in vaccines and the digital transformations that have made businesses large and small more resilient continue to shape the future. It is against this backdrop that we predict that consumer demand – and purchasing power – will increase and the experience economy will reappear next year. “



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